Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

Abstract Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management flood risk management. Significant changes air temperature, precipitation, humidity are expected future due to change. The influence of change hazards is subject considerable uncertainty that comes from model discrepancies, bias correction methods, frequency distribution, hydrological parameters. These factors play a crucial role planning event With advent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, managers planners interested know how catchment alter relative previous assessments. We examine catchment-based projected quantiles high flow events for Awash catchments. Conceptual models (HBV, SMART, NAM HYMOD), three downscaling techniques (EQM, DQM, SQF), an ensemble parameter sets were used peak magnitude under mid end century. result shows annual precipitation could increase substantially next several decades selected associated was quantified using aggregated variance decomposition confirms dominant factor Akaki (C2) Hombole (C5) catchments, whereas Bello (C4) Kela (C3) catchments types dominate, Kuntura (C1) both methods essential factors. For quantiles, hydrologic two main sources (31% 18%, respectively). In contrast, parameters hazard variable relatively small (5%), contribution much higher than results provide useful knowledge policy-relevant indices, resources control studies related with frequency.